I Think, Therefore I Yam

In a 2009 study, the Food and Agriculture Organization estimated that production would have to rise 70 percent by 2050 to meet the world?s needs. But Zilberman and others believe that the continued rise of the global middle class could result in a number much higher than that. By his lights, even if we were to develop all of the world?s remaining arable land?much of it in Brazil and other Latin American countries?we?d have to wring twice as much productivity from every acre of land under cultivation. While that?s not impossible, it won?t be easy. Water is one obstacle, as is the increasing proportion of grain that?s being used for biofuels rather than food. A third problem, less talked about, is that intensive farming practices appear to be degrading the world?s topsoil, raising the possibility that usable farmland will actually become scarcer in future decades. Climate change could exacerbate the problem, as droughts turn what today is arable land into desert. (Taking off on the concept of ?peak oil,? agriculture alarmists have labeled this specter ?peak soil.?)

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