The wildly volatile early stages of the Republican presidential race made it especially hard for pundits to see around corners this year ? particularly when the line between prognosticating and wishing seemed occasionally to disappear. Trying to gauge the impact of scandals also proved difficult. And a tragic crime caused some classic overreaction.
Here are the year?s biggest screw-ups from the commentariat.
Continue ReadingViolent right-wing rhetoric caused the Tucson shootings.
Jared Loughner is crazy. That?s the opinion of the experts who diagnosed him with schizophrenia, the judge who ruled in May that he was not mentally competent to stand trial, and many of the friends and family members who watched him stop making sense, stop being able to hold down a job and stop being able to relate to people in recent years.
These facts were not yet widely known on Jan. 8, the day that Loughner shot Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-Ariz.) in the head and killed six others in Tucson, but that didn?t stop the country?s most prominent liberal commentators from drawing political meaning out of the act that very day.
Within hours of the shooting, Paul Krugman posted to his blog and Keith Olbermann demanded on the air that conservative figures like Glenn Beck and Sarah Palin disavow their violent rhetoric.
Subsequent reporting suggested that Loughner was not engaged in partisan politics, and as Time magazine later put it in its look into Loughner?s mental state, ?In short, saying Sarah Palin or Glenn Beck caused Loughner?s actions is, to put it charitably, completely idiotic.?
Michele Bachmann will win the Republican nomination.
Bachmann?s moment at the top of the polls in Iowa may have been fleeting, but in midsummer it was convincing enough to inspire MSNBC?s Chris Matthews to make a bold prediction: She would beat Mitt Romney and win the Republican nomination for president.
Matthews told the live audience on ?Real Time With Bill Maher? in July, ?She?s my hero. She?s going all the way. She?s going to win this thing. I tell you right now, I predict she beats Romney. She?s going to beat him in New Hampshire.?
He pointed to Pat Buchanan?s performance in the state against George H.W. Bush and McCain?s victory over Romney last time around. ?I think you?re going to see a huge upset,? he predicted, because Bachmann has ?passion? and is ?not a fake.?
Current polling puts her in a single-digit fifth place in both Iowa and the nation ? and a 3.8 percent in New Hampshire, according to the Real Clear Politics average.
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